In this week’s stock market news we discuss the impact of trade tariffs and what a global trade war would mean for stocks, will it be the trigger that will crash stocks. Also why an upbeat economy and economic growth above expectations isn’t good for stocks. We discuss the S&P 500, Canadian stocks, European index and why emerging markets usually fall the most.



  1. Hi Sven

    Few points I want to make.

    1. Washing machine tariffs increased a few weeks back. It got over with no retaliation from Korea(LG, Samsung). Instead LG etc are building plants in USA.
    2. Wilbur Ross(Trade & Commerce Minister) asked a Question. If US is over protection, than who is least protection? I want to ask you same question.

    I am INDIAN, & I know, India has 100% tax on imported cars. Indian Economy will come to halt if India goes to trade war with USA.

    3. When Hillary Clinton elected as Secretary of State in 2009. She made noise about China currency devaluation.

    My Opinion. When S&P 500 reaches 2850, its all time high, Market is safe to invest again. I just want to make sure, Market is not going sideways.

    We shouldnt paint rosy picture, but I think you are trying to time recession, which makes your vision about every news as "This is THE EVENT".

    I would suggest you to keep people in your team who are not afraid to DISAGREE with you.

  2. Trump tries to build a Cabinet of "Yes Men." 45 percent of the original Whitehouse Staff, have left or been fired. The Yes Men know they must be "Yes Men," or lose their jobs. Yes Mr. Trump, whatever you say Mr. Trump. Trump hates the press and has tried to Silence a couple of Newspapers. But Freedom of P:ress and Speech is written into the Constitution and Trump cannot silence the Press. Trump love to start a fight by throwing the First Punch.

  3. The Trump Stock Market stopped going up; and went down by 10 percent. Now the Trump Stock Market is just staying pretty much in one Place.

  4. His bluff is not a bluff..
    He will sanction China, I believe.
    I wonder what will happen to Chinese stocks afterward

  5. Hey Sven since the next recession is coming, should I save my money to buy the stocks when they are cheap? In your opinion when do you believe the recession will occur? What would be the cause? Student debt, inflation, or trump haha. I live in the states.

  6. Congrats Sven. We need your show on Bloomberg or CNBC. Would'nt be so bad to have a podcast with interviews of the hedge fund managers( hope you get on their radars soon)

  7. Trade war? Trump bluffing?
    – the US has 4,4% of world's population and US companies want to make business with the rest of the world
    – mid term elections will be on 6th November 2018, til then I think the issue is over
    – the (verbal) conflict with north korea started in May 2017, now he is sending two diplomates (= 10 months psycho games), meaning Trump is persistent to reach his goals which is exactly what I read in one of his books – that's part of his mind set to be patient and persistent
    – conclusion: "trade war" might accompany us for a couple of months, but I suppose only in the press not for real
    – by the way Trump hasn't risked to fire Tillerson, because Tillerson made a deal with other ministers I think – if one person of the circle gets fired all of them will resign. Does anybody know what's the status there?

    Question is what will the market do? Will the market see it as a bluff or not? I suppose big adresses like Black Rock do have connections to politicians. There will be a lot of phone calls during the next week I guess.

    The Fed:
    – I read another interpretaion of Powell's speech as he emphazised that there are no signs for an overheating economy at the moment, wages are not much increasing and inflation is not going up due to ecommerce worldwide
    – an asset manager said slowly increasing interest rates will have no effect on companies as most of them has secured those historical low interest rates for a couple of years
    – from 2004 to 2006 interest rates were raised from 1,0% to 5,25% and it had no effect on the stock market during this time, 14 months later the Dow Jones started to fall.

    Normalisation of Central banks policy:
    – It seems to be the right time to do it because the economy is improving
    – So it might be possible that the economy will do fine in the next 2-3 years
    – the head strategic investment of Deutsche Bank Dr. Ulrich Stephan recently said that the cycle we are seeing at the moment is not so much kredit driven and broad because goverments are investing, companies are investing in new capacities and consumer spendings are good – in addition transformation due to digitalisation as a new improvement step in human history is taking place

    Dow Jones valuation:
    – 9 stocks have 2018 PE ratio >20
    – 12 stocks 2018 PE ratio 15-20
    – 11 stocks 2018 PE ratio <15

    In the 2008 crash the Dow Jones went down for 2 years and had it's worst loss from 01.10.2008 til 12.10.2008 where the index lost 28%. That's incredible 28% in just 12 days.

    What about General Electric as a turnaround candidate. I've heard rumors Buffet is checking cause he thinks shares are cheap!!!!!!!!!!

    "To do smart things constantly." Hm, sounds good.

  8. Congrats Sven! It’s interesting people are only focusing on the tariff portion of this story when they should look at other variables too. I’m currently writing an article on how recent and current CFIUS decisions regarding M&A deals in the tech and semiconductor markets are indicators as well!

  9. Congratulations Sven! Be sure not to forget about us when you make it big ok😭 sniffle I'm so proud of you

  10. Nice video, Sven. I definitely agree with your point on the importance of making smart investment decisions during the lifespan. It is hard to time the markets, but what worked well for me is watching when 50 day sma crosses 150 and both slope down. This is where I exit and I enter when the opposite takes place. I noticed that before the last market crash in 2008/9, we had the spike in commodity prices. Do you see this repeating or you think that stocks can go down without this? I also noticed that dollar spiked up as the panic selling took place in 2009 and then GDX and commodities recovered much faster that stocks, followed by the gold prices crash in 2011. I think viewers would enjoy you analyzing this so they can figure out how to profit from the upcoming reset 🙂
    There is no question that stocks will revert to the mean.
    What do you think about the avarage duration of the commodity cycle? Where are we now and what do you see happening next?

  11. Trade imbalance for last 3-4 decades is real proof that trade agreements have not been fair to US. We need to put our national interests first else US will be so dependent that it’s debt held by other countries due to trade imbalance will threaten our survival.

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