The risk of an economic or financial collapse are always there. I discuss the financial risks of the US, Europe, Japan, UK (BREXIT) and China to give a perspective of what is going on in this economic environment and where will an eventual financial crisis hit first.
Monetary policies are vary loose and could lead to stock market crashes. It is important to analyze what stock or financial market will crash first in order to position one’s investment portfolio properly.



  1. The Soviet Union cracked because it had too many disgruntled satellite states. The European Union is already cracking because it had too many disgruntled populations. Methinks the word UNION aught to be changed to ONION because over time and too much expansion it usually rots and decays. When you buy a bag of onions and some are well past their best, you remove the good ones to keep, and if you are not profligate chop away the decaying bits off the not so good. That's why BREXIT is good for the UK and the EU, anything worth preserving in the EU can have something more sound to migrate to. A Northern European Trading Alliance perhaps.

  2. A sell buy more Put ratio spread in TSLA for a credit is my current black swan hedge, It's positive Theta and slightly negative delta with all that beautiful tail exposure

  3. Trump is targeting German Cars. Chinese Steal and Aluminum. Russian Energy
    There is a trade War.

  4. This points out some of reason's the short position Ray Dalio's making in Europe. A great vid.

  5. I really wonder what happens to bitcoin when the economy tanks. I suspect a major correction flushing out those where leveraged followed by an upsurge that will defy belief

  6. Hi Sven, would have liked for you in have included Russia also in the video – not because it's gonna crash of course, just maybe 30 seconds on its current financial situation and why that means that it WON't.
    Merry Xmas

  7. Thanks for the insightful analysis as always! I love your 'macro' style videos the best since I just like thinking about long term trends

  8. Great video, Sven. Bubbles can get much bigger before they pop. I'm terrible at accurately timing market movements, so I'm not lowering risk level. If possible, hedge tail risk with SPY 90% OTM puts with >12 month expiry. Also good to keep at least a 20% allocation to high-quality bonds (PONDX is best). One could also allocate an additional 10% to high-yield or EM debt for risk parity diversification purposes. Let the market decide when to sell by using momentum/CPPI strategy to reallocate away from risk assets.

    Markets can stay detached from fundamentals for many years. Although future volatility is likely to rise amid less accommodative monetary policy, global econ growth is becoming more synchronized. U.S. fiscal deficits amid tax cut plan will be slightly stimulative in short-term. Odds of U.S. recession in forward 12 months still under 8% by most measures (yield curve, etc.). U.S. demand-pull inflation amid tighter labor market could increase inflation expectations and drive steeper yield curve in '18. Although risk of war is rising, this is usually financed with more deficit spending that is stimulative and positive for equities in short-term. This market likely has more room before it burst.

    After that, shits going to hit the fan!!!!!!

  9. Couple of times you mentioned printing money aka. QE. I'm wondering what makes a country to be able to print more money? Why for example Venezuela or South Sudan is not ok with printing money while EU is ok? What dictates this ability? Also couple of times you mention things are crazy, like for example the negative interest rates, but also in other videos you mention it sometimes. I would very much like to hear you elaborate on those things. If they're really crazy and insane, it would be worth IMHO to discuss them in a bit more detail and I'd appreciate it a lot. Anyway, thanks for the videos, I really like them!

  10. Hey Sven, you could do a video about the dollar stop being the world reserve currency, although I cant see it happening in the next 10 to 20 years, specially because the world is so connected, we never really know. Thanks and you do a great job here on Youtube.

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